As we near the end of an interesting year for the housing market, it’s important to be aware of and prepare for what the coming year has in store. The final quarter of the year is expected to see a drop of at least £13,405 in house prices across the country, hopefully in preparation for a less expensive property market at the start of 2024. With the cost of living crisis and steep mortgage rates, Coventry’s housing market has seen a prominent standstill for the last 12 months, leaving sellers and homeowners concerned about what this means for the future. In this week’s article, we’ll look at what property experts have to say about the prospects for the market next year.

In line with the trends that we have seen towards the end of this year, there are high expectations for drops in house prices for the whole year. The falls in house prices have moved through the UK gradually, previously being heavily concentrated in the south. Now, up and down the country, we are seeing recovery from the post-pandemic boom that has contributed to higher house prices, moving the property market back to a more stable and sustainable place. Reduced demand and buying power have contributed to the plateau and eventual dip in house prices, creating the most dramatic decline in price growth for well over a decade.

The West Midlands has a proportion of 70% of its market experiencing falling house prices, which is just below the UK national average of 80%. Zoopla has further stated that the affordability of housing must be improved to encourage buyers back to the market, as 5% mortgage rates are proving to remain far too expensive for the average buyer. Their executive director, Richard Donnell, commented that ‘income growth is finally increasing faster than inflation, but mortgage rates remain stuck around 5% or higher. We believe that house prices will post further small falls, averaging 2% over 2024, with 1 million home moves.’ The latest House Price Index has been revealed by Zoopla, which demonstrates prices in residential property prices are due to continue their nationwide drop. Additionally, Lloyds Banking Group predicts a 2.4% dip next year, following on from the 4.7% drop they expected for this year.

A spokesperson for Knight Frank also alluded to expecting house prices to fall through 2024. They observed that ‘surety about rates will allow buyers to plan more effectively, although affordability will continue to be stretched and we expect pressure on pricing and transaction volumes to continue through this year and next’. The representative went on to say that we are expecting strong wage growth, lockdown savings and overall, more flexibility from lenders and on mortgage terms, which will create increased demand in the near future. House prices in Coventry are already beginning to dip, particularly in the CV7 postcode, which covers Keresley, Exhall, Balsall Common and Fillongley, with this region seeing a 1.47% drop in house costs from the previous year – the largest drop of any postcode in Coventry.

However, some housing industry experts are of the opinion that prices will continue to rise into 2024, and that the real plateau is coming in 2025, as the average house price in Coventry has increased by 0.8% in the last year to £230,604, according to new data from Land Registry. Wages are growing faster than interest rates, but it will take time for this to impact property prices, leaving experts to believe that the prices won’t drop till 2025, but this will be dependent on the labour market and interest rates. An all-out crash is not expected when the figures finally come down, but instead, a gradual 5% regression, preceding a stagnant period till 2026, where the prices should grow marginally.

Due to the instability and volatility of the situation, market projections can change at any moment. Though it appears the general consensus is that the market should see a drop, it is important that you prepare for the opposite, so that you are able to act accordingly. Experts alike are keeping an eye on the ever-changing data to ensure that buyers and sellers stay in the know, and we will continue to report on this situation, so that you receive the most up to date information as we progress into the next year.